外资、产业集聚与失业:新经济地理观

本文整合Harris-Todaro(1970)的城市失业现象与Krugman(1991)的新经济地理理论,建立新经济地理失业模型,探讨外资对于就业、城市失业量(率)与产业结构的影响;焦点置于要素替代差异、Todaro矛盾以及引进外资国家的福利分析。在两国架构中,当引进外资时,若要素替代弹性较低,资本引进国随着制造业扩张,其劳动雇佣量固然上升,但城市失业量亦随之上扬,出现Todaro矛盾现象。反之,在高要素替代情况下,引进外资的国家可能出现制造业就业和城市失业量同时下降的现象。

Foreign Capital,Agglomeration and Unemployment:A New Economic Geography Approach

This paper develops a model by incorporating the urban unemployment framework of Harris-Todaro (1970) into Krugman′s (1991) model of economic geography.We investigate the foreign capital′s effects on employment,the level (and rate) of urban unemployment and industrial structure.In particular,the focus is on the relationships between elasticities of factor substitution,the Todaro paradox,and social welfare.In the two-country framework,as capital moves in,job creation in manufacturing sector and urban unemployment rise simultaneously,namely Todaro paradox occurs,if elasticities of substitution between factors are sufficiently low.On the coutrary,manufacturing employment and urban unemployment may decrease following capital inflows when the elasticities are high.