金融发展对国际收支的影响:基于政府治理的视角

近年来的全球失衡突出表现在美国持续收支逆差和新兴市场国家以及石油输出国持续顺差之间的矛盾,但是传统理论无法完全解释这一失衡现象。基于金融全球化加深的事实,我们重点考察金融发展是否加剧了国际收支失衡。我们将金融发展对国际收支失衡的影响按照传导机制的思路进行解释,并利用1994～2004年81个国家的数据进行了全球范围的实证研究,我们发现,这种传导机制的作用是非常显著的,并且这种显著性受制于各国的政府治理发展状况,所以传导作用因国而异,在发达国家、东亚新兴市场以及其他发展中国家的影响不同。因此,单个国家(如中国)并不是导致当前失衡的主要原因,失衡的中国责任论是不成立的。

Financial Developments and Global Imbalances:A Research from the Perspective of Governance

The recent global imbalances are mainly featured by the persistent current account deficits of United States and the surplus of Emerging Markets and Oil-exporting countries,which can′t be explained by the traditional theories.Since the financial globalization has been deepening,we explore whether the differences in financial developments between countries can explain the imbalances.First,we analyse the transmission channel between financial development and balance of payments.Second,we build an international panel database for 81 countries covering the period 1994～2004 to assess econometrically whether differences in financial development explain the imbalances.We find that there is significant transmission between financial development and the imbalances,and the significance depends on the governance quality.According to our findings,any single country,like China,is not the reason for the imbalances.