| 中国三大都市圈经济增长趋于收敛还是发散?——基于协整分析和Granger因果检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 邓慧慧. 中国三大都市圈经济增长趋于收敛还是发散?——基于协整分析和Granger因果检验[J]. 城市发展研究, 2011, 18(11): 70-73 |
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| 作者姓名： | 邓慧慧 |
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| 作者单位： | 对外经济贸易大学国际经济研究院,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目，对外经济贸易大学学术创新团队资助项目，“对外经济贸易大学‘211工程’三期重大项目，对外经济贸易大学重点培育学科项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文采用Engle和Granger(1987)提出的协整检验方法和Im、Pesaran和Shin(1997)的方法,从时间序列分析角度入手,研究目标是在不同的空间尺度上(全国和三大都市圈),从不同的时间尺度上揭示中国区域经济差异的演化规律。探索改革开放以来三大都市圈区域经济不平衡程度的演化历程与变化趋势。主要结论:长三角和珠三角具有收敛趋势而环渤海都市圈内不存在收敛;三大都市圈之间不存在收敛趋势,在长期受两个共同冲击的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域经济 收敛 单位根检验 |
Study on Economic Growth and Convergence in Three Metropolitan Areas:Based on Co-integration Analysis and the Granger Causality Testing |
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| DENG Huihui. Study on Economic Growth and Convergence in Three Metropolitan Areas:Based on Co-integration Analysis and the Granger Causality Testing[J]. Urban Studies, 2011, 18(11): 70-73 |
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| Authors: | DENG Huihui |
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| Affiliation: | DENG Huihui |
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| Abstract: | This paper synthetically applies time-series method to investigate the hypothesis of a causal relationship between economic growth and regional difference in Three Metropolitan Areas.Special attention is paid to the integration properties of the series and,in addition to analyzing the data using standard "pre-cointegration" Granger causality techniques,this paper employ modern vector autoregression methodology(VAR).The result indicates that the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta has a stable convergence,and the Bohai economic ring doesn’t take an convergence trend since reform and opening-up. |
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| Keywords: | Regional Economy Economic Convergence Unit Root Testing |
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