上海市入境旅游市场影响因素分析与预测——以德国、法国、英国、美国与泰国客源国为例

入境旅游是衡量一个国家知名度、影响力和旅游发展水平的主要因素,也是赚取外汇和旅游收入的重要路径。上海是外国游客入境重要的目的地,也是中国最大的入境游客中转站。文章分析了德国、法国、英国、美国、泰国五个上海主要入境旅游客源国2004年第一季度至2018年第三季度的数据,运用计量经济学方法建模,并实证分析了上海入境旅游需求的影响因素。研究表明,口碑效应、客源地的收入水平与上海入境旅游需求正相关;上海入境旅游具有较大的季节波动特点,冬夏两季入境游客数量减少;世博会对上海入境旅游拉动作用较大。同时,对德国、法国、泰国三大市场未来十年的旅游季度需求进行了预测,预测发现,德国、法国、泰国三大市场未来十年都有较大增长,特别是泰国市场的年均增长率达到4%。

Analysis and Forecast of Influence Factors of Shanghai Inbound Tourism Market:A Case Study of Germany,France,Britain,USA and Thailand Market

Inbound tourism is the main factor to estimate the development level of one country s popularity,influence and tourism.It is also an important way to make foreign exchange and tourism income.Shanghai is an important destination for foreign tourists and the largest transit point for inboundtourists in China.This paper analyzes the tourism data travelling from Germany,France,Britain,USA and Thailand to Shanghai from the first quarter of 2004 to the third quarter of 2018.The results showed that there is a positive correlation between the word-of-mouth effect,the income level of the tourists generating countries and the inbound tourism demand of Shanghai.The inbound tourism in Shanghai is related to the great seasonal fluctuation,and the number of inbound tourists decreases in winter and summer.Moreover,the world expo had a great impact on Shanghai s inbound tourism.At the same time,the quarterly tourism demand of Germany,France and Thailand in the next ten years is forecasted.It is found that the three markets of Germany,France and Thailand will all grow significantly in the next ten years,especially the annual growth rate of Thailand will reach 4%.