消费结构升级与技术进步

文章将技术进步分解为技术效率与技术创新,并沿着成果转化、自主创新和技术模仿等路径,探讨了消费结构升级对技术进步的影响及条件。文章认为,消费结构升级引导着资源的配置方向;沿着不同的路径,消费结构升级带来了不同形式的技术进步。一方面,消费结构升级可促进科技成果转化,在生产前沿不变的条件下提高技术效率。当发明专利得到更好的保护时,生产者推动成果转化的积极性会提高,这时,可用的科技成果越多,消费结构升级越能推动技术效率提升。另一方面,消费结构升级还能推动企业突破现有的生产前沿,实现技术创新。由于小企业运营更灵活、竞争压力更大,在企业平均规模较小的市场结构中,消费结构升级更能推动技术创新;而政府主导的研发往往缺乏行业需求等信息,可能与消费者的实际需求脱节,因此,政府主导的研发投入越多,消费结构升级越难拉动技术创新。不仅如此,在开放条件下,企业还可以通过模仿去满足消费结构升级带来的新需求,进口越多,模仿的空间越大,这种模仿会提升技术效率,但可能会不利于技术创新。基于1999-2015年的省级面板数据,文章对上述假说进行了检验,结果表明上述论断成立。

Consumption Structure Upgrading and Technological Progress

This paper decomposes technological progress into technological efficiency and technological change, and discusses the influence of consumer structure upgrading on them from the perspectives of transformation of scientific and technological achievements, independent innovation and imitation. In our options, the consumption structure upgrading can lead the resources reallocation, and then bring different forms of technological progress along at least three paths. First, the consumption structure upgrading can accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and then improve the technical efficiency. Moreover, this effect is stronger when the patent protection strengthened and more patents are available. Second, the consumption structure upgrading can promote independent innovation, but the effect of this mechanism was limited by the existing market structure and government intervention. On the one hand, due to the more flexible operation and greater competition pressure of small enterprises, the consumption structure upgrading can promote technological innovation more quickly in the market structure with a smaller average size of enterprises. On the other hand, government-led R&D often lack the necessary information such as the actual needs of consumers, therefore, the more government-led investment in R&D, the more difficult it is to promote technological innovation by upgrading the consumption structure. In addition to this, under open conditions, the upgrading of the consumption structure can trigger imitation of imported goods, which is conducive to improving technological efficiency, but may be detrimental to technological change. Based on the provincial panel data from 1999 to 2015, we tested above hypothesis. And the results of empirical analysis support our views.