| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of Kalman filtering as a technique for modeling the risk levels of managed funds. Using a sample of Australian Multi-sector trusts we examine selectivity and market timing performance using conventional performance models alongside Kalman filter models that allow beta to vary via a random walk. Further, we consider the stability and asymmetry of these performance measures together with a measure of volatility timing arising from a cubic model of fund performance. We find that the positive selectivity (negative market timing) that stems from the conventional models is not present with the Kalman filter model. The Kalman filter model tends to show neutral performance for both. However, both models confirm a strong tendency toward negative volatility timing. |
