人民币内部真实汇率的测算及汇率失调分析——基于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应

本文将我国的经济数据按贸易部门和非贸易部门进行分类,在测算出内部真实汇率的基础上,分析了人民币内部真实汇率的决定因素和人民币汇率失调情况。结果表明:贸易部门与非贸易部门之间的相对劳动生产率和我国的开放程度是影响人民币真实汇率最主要的因素,从而印证了巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应适合我国的实际情况,同时2002年之后人民币处于被低估区间。本文认为,提高非贸易部门劳动生产率、控制热钱流入以及提高贸易部门工资增长率可以在一定程度上缓解当前人民币升值压力。

Internal Equilibrium Exchange Rate of RMB:Measurment and Misalignment-Based on the Balassa-Samuelson Effect

This paper divides data of China into two sectors(traded and non-traded),and then calculates of the internal real exchange rate based on a simple model.Moreover,it measures the equilibrium exchange rate of the Chinese RMB and the misalignment.The paper finds that among factors that influences RMB real exchange rate,the relative productivity between traded sector and non-traded sector(B-S effect)and the openness are the most important.Evidence also shows that the internal exchange rate has been underestimated since2002.At last,the paper presents some suggestion for the political application of the conclusion.