美国汽车市场的复兴之路

2008-2009年的美国经济大衰退中近四分之三的收缩集中在住房和汽车两个领域。文章比较了美国的房地产业和汽车业的近期表现,分析了决定汽车需求的长期驱动因素和导致需求波动的短期因素。认为,鉴于美国就业和信贷增长的速度都将较为缓慢,汽油价格在未来几年也有可能再度大幅攀升,美国汽车销售迅速回到危机前水平的可能性不大。但是当前汽车的压抑需求正快速积累,美国汽车市场的复苏不可避免,而且它仍将是美国经济中期复苏的重要动力。

Recovery of the US Auto Market

During the 2008-09 financial crisis,automotive industry was one of the hardest hit sectors along with the housing and financial industries,which combined to account for three fourths of the economic contraction.The auto industry is the largest and most dynamic consumer-spending sector that had driven US economic recovery in the post-war era.Will it play the same role in driving recovery this time? Will consumer demand for new vehicles stay suppressed in the prolonged de-leveraging process? This article comp...