我国农产品出口贸易联系持续期及其影响因素:基于生存模型的实证研究

本文将贸易联系持续期引入至我国农产品出口贸易的稳定性和可持续性分析中,并基于3种生存模型即Cox比例风险模型、Exponential模型和Weibull模型,利用我国1995～2007年HS-6位数编码出口贸易的微观数据,研究了影响我国农产品出口贸易的因素。主要结论为:样本期内,我国农产品出口的贸易联系持续期普遍偏短,其存活均值只有2.23年,5年存活率约为1/4,10年存活率也只有约1/5;同时对基于5个方面影响因素的实证分析发现,本国总出口额、进口国消费能力及其地理区位、农产品初始贸易额和单位价值产品及其可替代性、贸易双方的前期贸易联系和所达成的双边贸易额、汇率变化及国际规则约束等,均会对我国农产品出口贸易联系持续期产生影响。最后,本文有针对性地提出了促进我国农产品出口贸易平稳发展及延长我国农产品出口贸易联系持续期的对策建议。

A Study on the Trade Relation Duration of Our Agriculture Products and Its Influencing Factors based on the Survival Analysis

Based on the micro-data of HS-6 export trade from 1995 to 2007,using three survival analysis models including Cox PH,Exponential model and Weibull model,this paper analyzes the factors influencing the trade duration of our country's agriculture products.And it finds that the duration of our agriculture products is very short,for example,the average duration life is about 2.23 years old and so on.And it also finds that the export volume of home country,the consumption ability of importing country,the location,international rules and so on will have effect on the duration of our country's export trade relation.At last,this paper also gives out some countermeasures to make our agriculture products' export stable and prolong the trade relation duration.