On the determinants of national saving: An extreme-bounds analysis

On the Determinants of Saving: An Extreme-Bounds Analysis. — We use extreme-bounds analysis to examine the reliability of estimates of various determinants of national saving. Results from the cross-sectional data are discouraging, for few of the standard determinants identified in the theoretical and empirical saving literature can pass robustness tests. However, our panel analysis is much more encouraging. We found agricultural share in total output, public saving, budget balance, and the current account balance are indeed robust. Furthermore, when we applied a modified form of sensitivity analysis, we found that seven variables are very robust. Generally, the most commonly specified determinants of saving provide limited guidance in understanding and predicting saving behavior.