中国影子银行发展成因实证分析——基于2002~2012年月度数据

综合运用格兰杰因果检验和分位数回归技术对我国影子银行的各种影响因素进行实证分析。结论表明，我国影子银行是在金融二元结构和利率管制格局下，金融活动主体为规避监管、分散风险以及投机套利而进行金融创新的产物。利率管制是促成我国影子银行发展的根本原因，经济结构变迁、经济周期运行及宏观调控政策在总量与结构层面作用于金融资源供求关系，通过扩大或收缩监管套利空间，也对影子银行规模变动产生了重要影响。

A Empirical Analysis of the Causes of the Development of China's Shadow Banking Based on the Monthly Data from 2002 to 2012

Using Granger Causality test and quantile regression, the paper explored the factors Contributing to China''s shadow banking development empirically. The conclusions show that China''s shadow banking system is the outcome which financial participants carried out financial innovation in order to avoid regulation and diversify risk and practice speculative arbitrage in the background of financial dual structure and interest rate controls in China. Specifically, interest rate control is the fundamental factor leading to China''s Shadow banking system development, while the economic structure, business cycle and macro economic policies also contributed to the shadow banking system through changing the relationship of financial resource supply and demand both quantitatively and structurally.