人民币升值压力下存在J曲线效应吗

汇率有效调整可以改善贸易收支,但在短期内可能先出现进一步恶化贸易收支的J曲线效应,以往研究主要探讨人民币贬值的情况。本文发现,在人民币升值压力下,我国目前已经出现影响进出口贸易增速的近似J曲线效应,而贸易收支决定模型的实证结果表明汇率变动对贸易收支影响显著,人民币升值压力下的J曲线效应越来越明显。J曲线效应可能在短期内被其他诸多因素所掩盖,但在人民币升值压力不断增加的情况下值得警惕。

Is There J-Curve Effect under the pressure of RMB Appreciation

The change of exchange rate affects trade balance and leads to J-Curve effect. The growth of exports and imports is influenced and quasi-J-Curve appears in China. From the empirical research on Chinese trade balance determination model, RMB appreciation affects trade balance significantly and J-Curve is becoming more and more obvious. We should pay more attention to J-Curve effect during the period of RMB appreciation even though it could be covered by some other factors in the short run.