理解人民币汇率的均衡、失调、波动与调整

本文区分产品市场和资产市场均衡汇率、失调和波动,得出了人民币实际汇率的短期和长期均衡值,发现人民币不存在严重高估和低估,只是产品市场上近期实际汇率低估且程度在加深,而资产市场上高估;产品市场上实际汇率长期波动主要源自相对供给冲击,资产市场上短期波动则主要来自自身调整机制和相对货币供给冲击。政策含义表明:资本账户保持一定管制降低了风险溢价,允许决策者调整短期实际汇率波动,扩大波动幅度减缓汇率升值预期,消除资产市场上短期失调;长期波动决定因素使得决策者只能以产品市场长期均衡汇率为升值目标汇率,在需求政策效果不明显的情况下,可以考虑供给管理政策实现内外经济均衡。

Understanding Equilibrium,Misalignment,Volatility and Adjustment of RMB Exchange Rate

This paper differentiates the output market equilibrium exchange rate,misalignment and volatility from asset market, and gets short-term or long-term value of RMB equilibrium exchange rate. The findings indicate that the RMB is not seriously overvalued or undervalued, and real exchange rate(RER)is undervalued in the output market, which has an enlarging trend, but overvalued in the asset market. The long-run volatility in the output market mostly stems from relative supply impact, but mechanism for its adju...