国际储备积累、实物与资产价格通胀及货币政策独立性

本文理论模型显示,国际储备积累引起的货币增发会导致实物和资产价格上涨,降低货币政策独立性。首先,尽管货币政策工具短期内可以通过冲销和抑制信贷等方法控制通胀,但只要顺差积累足够大,长期无法阻止通胀。其次,如果人们预期央行未来会让物价上升,即使物价当前仍被较好地控制,资产价格也可能出现大幅上涨。最后,在"不可能三角"中,即使放弃资本自由流动,也并不意味着就能同时拥有汇率稳定和独立货币政策。

Accumulation of International Reserves, Goods and Asset Price Inflation, and the Independence of Monetary Policy

We show that the accumulation of international reserves will lead to higher money supply and higher goods and asset prices, and will reduce the independence of monetary policy. Monetary policy tools can prevent inflation only in the short term but not in the long run. Even when goods prices are under good control, if people expect that higher inflation will happen in the future, asset prices can rise rapidly. Our model shows that, in the "impossible trinity", giving up free flows of capital does not necessarily mean that a country can have both a stable exchange rate and an independent monetary policy.