2011-2012年中国货币政策分析与展望

本文回顾了2011年中国货币政策操作的主要措施和金融运行情况，分析了2012年货币政策运行环境，提出了货币政策建议。本文认为，2011年，面对不断上升的通货膨胀压力，中国人民银行实行了稳健的货币政策，货币信贷条件向常态水平回归，有效遏制了物价过快上涨的势头。2012年，在经济增长下行压力和物价上涨压力并存的局面下，中国人民银行需要继续实施稳健的货币政策，进一步增强货币政策的针对性、灵活性和前瞻性，根据经济形势的变化，适时适度进行预调微调，保持货币信贷总量和社会融资规模的合理适度增长，更好地服务于实体经济发展。

2011-2012 CHINA'S MONETARY POLICY REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

This paper reviewed the main measures of China’s monetary policy in 2011.Based on analyzing financial performance in 2011 and the economic circumstance in 2012,this paper provided some suggestions for China’s monetary policy in 2012.This paper argued that,prudent monetary policy implemented by the PBC in 2011 was taking effect,monetary and credit condition was returning its normal level and the rising inflation is effectively curbed.The downward pressure on economic growth and upward pressure on inflation would coexist in 2012.The PBC should maintain the stance of prudent monetary policy and implement monetary policy better targeted,more flexible and more prospective.Furthermore,the central bank should preset and fine tune the monetary policy timely and moderately according to the changing economic situation,and keep a reasonable moderate growth of money supply,aggregate credit and total social financing to better serve the real economy.