中国信贷投放对经济增长影响的实证研究

本文使用峰谷相关分析对我国的经济增长周期和信贷增长周期进行划分；使用普通线性回归模型和马尔科夫状态转移模型研究了信贷投放、通货膨胀在利率变化、经济增长周期处于上行阶段、人民币升值等不同时期对于经济增长的影响；使用状态空间模型分析了信贷投放分别通过投资渠道和消费渠道对于经济增长的促进效率。实证结果表明，信贷增长周期对于经济增长周期存在一定的顺周期性，信贷的投放效果存在非对称性，即存在“金融加速器”效应。信贷在温和通胀和人民币贬值时期对于经济增长有促进作用，但是对于消费存在明显的挤出效应。

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON CREDIT EFFECT ON CHINA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH

In this paper the economic growth cycle and credit cycle in China were calculated by the correlation analysis of peak and trough.Based on the cycles,this paper applied linear regressions and Markov switching models to study the relations between the economic growth,credit cycle and inflation in China,and analyzed the contribution of credit loan to the economic growth from consumption channel and investment channel respectively.The results showed that the credit cycle was pro-cyclical and had asymmetric effects on the economic growth,i.e.financial accelerator effect.Furthermore,the credit loan was more efficient to prompt economic growth during mild inflation or domestic currency appreciation but had crowd-out effect on consumption.