论欧元汇率波动：一个欧美博弈视角

欧元自1999年面世以来,其走势和前景引起众人关注,许多人纷纷利用购买力平价等各种汇率决定理论对其汇率走势进行预测,然而其汇率变化仍然出乎意料,欧元从最初的一路狂跌,到2002年以来强劲上扬。传统经济学理论无法预测和解释欧元的波动,而欧美博弈,尤其是美国政府的态度,对于欧元的波动影响颇大。欧元虽然潜力巨大,但是冲击美元的霸主地位尚需时日。

Fluctuations of Euro Exchange Rate: From the Perspective of the Euro-US Gaming

The trends and fortunes of the Euro have attracted everyone's attention since it was first introduced in 1999.Many people have used a variety of exchange rate methods such as purchasing power and fair prices to determine theories for predicting trends in the Euro exchange rate.Nevertheless,the changes in the Euro exchange rate have taken people by surprise.From the early period when the Euro took a precipitous drop in value,the value has continued to increase since 2002.Traditional economic theory is unable to predict or interpret fluctuations in the value of the Euro,and the competition between Europe and the US,particularly in terms of the attitude of the US government,has been fairly sensitive to the fluctuations in the value of the Euro.Although the Euro has tremendous potential,it will be some time before the Euro can truly challenge the US dollar.