中国地区价格的空间相关性及传导差异的因素分析——基于动态空间面板模型的实证研究

文章基于中国省级数据,借鉴开放经济条件下的新凯恩斯混合Phillips曲线构建空间计量模型,采用动态空间面板模型估计方法,实证考察了中国地区间价格水平的空间相关性,以及影响价格空间传导、促成空间差异的经济社会因素。结果发现,距离相近地区价格的正相关性逐渐增强,中国的国内市场趋于整合;但地方保护和对外开放等因素制约了国内地区间产品和要素的流通,弱化了地区间价格的空间传导,是形成价格地区分化的重要原因;各地区产出缺口差异也是促成地区间价格差异的重要因素。另外,在我国地区价格的动态变化中,国外产出缺口已取代地区产出缺口成为主要驱动因素。

Spatial Correlation of Regional Prices and Influencing Factors of Transmission Differences in China:An Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Spatial Panel Model

Based on provincial panel data in China,this paper employs new Keynesian-Phillips curve under open economy to construct a spatial econometric model.Then it employs a dynamic spatial panel model to empirically study the spatial correlation of regional prices and the economic and social factors influencing the transmission differences.The estimation results show that the positive correlation of prices in neighboring regions is gradually strengthening and the domestic markets in China tend to become an integrated one.However,factors such as local protection and opening-up policy restrict the circulation of products and factors among regions and weaken the spatial transmission of regional prices,which are the reasons for the disparity of regional prices.The difference of regional output gap is also the important reason for the disparity of regional prices.In addition,instead of local output gap,global output gap has been the important driver of the dynamic change in regional prices.