税制改革、经济效率和社会福利——基于A-KOLG框架下的动态CGE模拟分析

在经典的世代交叠动态一般均衡(A-K OLG)模型的基础上,建立了一个由一系列不等式方程组所构成的"跨期动态"模型,反现实地模拟了提高间接税同时降低直接税对我国社会福利、经济效率的影响。与基期相比,减少对资本征税会带来福利增长0.34%(纯经济效率提高0.25%),减少对劳动征税会带来福利增长0.1%(纯经济效率提高0.02%)。该实证结果证明了间接税比直接税更有利于实现经济效率的理论观点。因此,提高直接税的比重是需要以一定的经济效率损失为代价的,实行该项举措应该权衡好各方面利弊、把握好改革时机。

Tax Reform,Economic Efficiency and Social Welfare:A Dynamic CGE Simulation Analysis Based on A-K OLG Model

Based on a typical dynamic general equilibrium model of overlapping generations(Auerbrach and Kotlikoff,1987),this paper establishes an inter-temporal?dynamic model which consists of a series of non-equality equation sets,then counterfactually simulates the dynamic impacts of both raising the indirect tax and lowing the direct tax on the economic efficiency and social welfare in China.Compared with the base period,reducing taxes on capital will bring welfare gains by 0.34%(increasing pure economic efficiency by 0.25%),while reducing the tax on labor will bring welfare growth by 0.1%(increasing pure economic efficiency by 0.02%).The empirical result proves the theory that indirect taxes are better than direct taxes in realizing economic efficiency.Therefore,to increase the proportion of the direct tax is actually at the cost of certain economic efficiency,we have to seize the right time to reform and weigh the pros and cons very carefully when carrying out such measures.