市场化进程、经济波动与地方金融风险

基于2008~2014年我国110家地方商业银行样本,运用动态面板估计模型,分析不同经济环境下市场化转型对地方银行信用风险的影响。研究发现,深化市场化改革能够有效降低信用风险。然而,这种抑制作用在不同经济环境下的政策效果存在差异:在经济平稳运行的条件下,市场化改革的推进能有效降低区域的信用风险;在经济波动较大的条件下,推进市场化转型则会加剧区域的信用风险。构建平稳增长的经济环境是防范与化解系统性金融风险的前提条件。

Marketization,Economic Fluctuation and Local Financial Risk

Based on the sample of 110 local commercial banks in China from 2008 to 2014,we establish a dynamic panel estimation model to analyze the impact of market-oriented reform on credit risk of local banks in different economic environments.It is found that deepening the reform of marketization can effectively reduce credit risk.However,this restraint effect differs in different economic environments.Under the condition of stable economic operation,promoting the marketization process effectively reduces regional credit risk.Under the condition of large economic fluctuation,promoting market-oriented transformation will aggravate regional credit risk.Building a stable economic environment is the precondition for forestalling and defusing systemic financial risks.