| 人民币升值能解决美国对华贸易赤字吗?——基于1994～2005年间月度数据的贸易弹性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 金洪飞,周继忠.人民币升值能解决美国对华贸易赤字吗?——基于1994～2005年间月度数据的贸易弹性分析[J].财经研究,2007,33(4):4-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 金洪飞 周继忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海财经大学金融学院,上海,200433 |
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| 基金项目： | 上海财经大学“211工程”重点学科建设项目，上海财经大学现代金融研究中心资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 文章以1994年1月到2005年3月的月度数据为样本,用ARDL框架下的协整方法,对中美贸易的收入弹性和实际汇率弹性进行了经验分析。分析后发现:第一,我国对美进出口的收入弹性都是显著的,并且我国对美国出口的收入弹性约为我国从美进口的收入弹性的6倍,但是我国对美进口和出口的实际汇率弹性都是不显著的。因此,文章认为人民币汇率对中美贸易没有显著影响,人民币汇率升值将无法改善美国的对华贸易收支。
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| 关 键 词： | 中美贸易 人民币汇率 协整 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-9952（2007）04-0004-14 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-12-27 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-12-27 |
Can Revaluation of RMB Resolve US's Trade Deficit with China?——China-US Trade Elasticities Analysis Based on Monthly Data |
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| JIN Hong-fei,ZHOU Ji-zhong.Can Revaluation of RMB Resolve US''''s Trade Deficit with China?——China-US Trade Elasticities Analysis Based on Monthly Data[J].The Study of Finance and Economics,2007,33(4):4-17. |
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| Authors: | JIN Hong-fei ZHOU Ji-zhong |
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| Institution: | School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai 200433, China |
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| Abstract: | Using the monthly data from 1994.1 to 2005.3,we employ a new cointegration technique,i.e.ARDL approach to perform an empirical analysis on income elasticities and real exchange rate elasticities of the export and import functions of Sino-US trade.The results indicate that income elasticities of import and export demand for Sino-US trade are significant,and the income elasticity of the export to US is approximately as 6 times as that of import from US.However,real exchange rate elasticities of those are both not significant.So the revaluation of RMB against US dollar would not improve US's trade with China. |
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| Keywords: | Sino-US trade exchange rate cointegration |
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