探索农村食品消费结构的转变规律——一个嵌入时间路径的LA/AIDS模型的应用

本文在总结国内外文献的基础上,利用一个嵌入时间路径的LA/AIDS模型,探索了农村居民食品消费结构的转变规律。结果显示,农村居民食品的消费结构发生了渐进式转变,其转变期为1984～1987年。从需求弹性值变化来看,粮食一直是必需品,其弹性值变化不大,消费量逐年下降;肉类从奢侈品转变为必需品,发生了本质的变化,其消费量逐年上升;水产品仍是富于弹性的奢侈品,但其弹性值逐渐下降,并趋于必需品。

Exploring the Structural Change in Rural Chinese Food Demand

Structural change is one of the core issues in economics of consumption.A lot have been discussed by the academic field and some fruits have been achieved,but scholars have done little empirical work on structure change.Having reviewed the available references,the paper uses LA/AIDS model to investigate the gradual change in the main food consumption of rural residents.The results show that structure of main food consumption have undergone gradually change,and the transition path began in 1984 and ended in 1987.After the structural change,the grain has always been a necessity,little change in elasticity,and the consumption declines.Meat changes form luxury to necessity,its consumption increases year by year,while fish is still a luxury,and tends to be a necessity.The substituting relationship among the foods is expanding.These conclusions provide important implications for transformation of agricultural structure,food consumption and international trade policy.