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What Caused the Sharp Downturn in the Chinese Economy during the Global Financial Crisis? A Critical Note on Causality in Trade Linkage
基金项目:This statement is adapted from the first sentence of Karl Marx's Communist Manifesto. There have been several papers in the Chinese literature that formally discuss the same issue and they may be of interest to the reader who wishes to consider different perspectives. See, for example, He (2009) and Wu (2008).
摘    要:In responding to a view that attributes sharp downturns in the Chinese economy in late 2008 and early 2009 to the "collapse of external demand," the present paper scrutinizes three relevant issues: How have large Chinese importers behaved in a demand-price setting? How have Chinese commodity imports and exports interacted in recent years? Did the downturns in China's export growth come earlier and were they deeper than those in Chinese import growth? All answers appear to suggest a conclusion contrary to the abovementioned view: sharp downturns in China's trade and economy during the reeent global financial crisis were, to a large extent, caused by certain domestic factors, or by factors that should not be regarded as entirely "external. " Insomuch as globalization has advanced, a large economy like China's today faces new potential sources of macroeeonomic disturbances, from inside and outside.

关 键 词:中国经济  金融危机  因果关系  贸易  挂钩  进口商  全球化  出口
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