人民币境外流通对我国经济影响的实证分析

文章首先设计了一个理论模型估计1988~2004年之间人民币每年在境外流通的数量;然后采用相关分析法和最小二乘法分析人民币跨境流通对我国经济内外均衡主要指标的影响。研究表明:人民币跨境流通对人民币名义汇率的影响甚微,对我国的通货膨胀率、城镇登记未就业人数、国内生产总值、财政赤字、净出口额、外债余额和外汇储备均有一定程度的影响。根据实证分析的结果,文章提出,在境外流通的人民币中,通过非法途径流出的人民币占有相当大的比例,并对此提出了相应的政策建议。

An Empirical Analysis of the Influence over Cross-border Circulation of RMB

This article first designs a theoretical model to estimate the quantity of RMB outside China between 1988~2004 and then employs the Correlation Test and OLS approach to measure the effects of the cross-border circulation of RMB on the major economic indices of China's economy.The research results indicate that though the cross-border circulation of RMB has few effect on the exchange rate of RMB,it exerts considerable influence on the nation's inflation rate,the registered unemployment,GDP,the fiscal deficit,the net value of export,the balance foreign debt and the reserve of foreign exchange.According to the results from the empirical analysis,the author points out that the ratio of RBM flowing out illegally to the total amount of RMB outside is very high,which has rather negative influence on the nation's economy.At the end some relevant policy suggestions are given.