Detecting structural breaks and identifying risk factors in hedge fund returns: A Bayesian approach |
| |
Authors: | Loukia Meligkotsidou Ioannis D Vrontos |
| |
Institution: | 1. Department of Mathematics, University of Athens, Athens, Greece;2. Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Athens, Greece |
| |
Abstract: | Extending previous work on asset-based style factor models, this paper proposes a model that allows for the presence of structural breaks in hedge fund return series. We consider a Bayesian approach to detecting structural breaks occurring at unknown times and identifying relevant risk factors to explain the monthly return variation. Exact and efficient Bayesian inference for the unknown number and positions of the breaks is performed by using filtering recursions similar to those of the forward–backward algorithm. Existing methods of testing for structural breaks are also used for comparison. We investigate the presence of structural breaks in several hedge fund indices; our results are consistent with market events and episodes that caused substantial volatility in hedge fund returns during the last decade. |
| |
Keywords: | G11 G12 C11 |
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录! |
|