农村老龄人口居住模式、收入结构与贫困脆弱性

当前中国农村地区老龄人口独居现象普遍,老年贫困问题突出。本文利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)和中国城乡社区治理调查(CGGS)2013～2017年的数据,对农村老人居住模式变迁引起的老年贫困问题进行研究。本文选取贫困脆弱性指标来衡量个体在未来陷入贫困的概率,有利于对老年贫困问题进行前瞻性分析。实证结果表明:居住模式显著影响农村老龄人口的贫困脆弱性,独居老人陷入贫困的概率远远高于合居老人。进一步的异质性分析发现:(1)相较于老年男性,独居对老年女性的致贫作用更明显;(2)相较于儿子,女儿在缓解老年父母贫困问题上发挥的作用更大;(3)同村有直系血缘亲属能够显著缓解独居老人的贫困。最后,本文从消费行为理论出发,探讨了居住模式影响农村老龄人口贫困脆弱性的作用机制。研究发现,居住模式的变迁显著改变了农村老年家庭的收入结构,独居会使家庭非农收入占比显著下降,从而引起消费倾向降低,进而导致以消费为基础的贫困脆弱性指标升高。对此,本文建议政府、社会和家庭三方从不同渠道增加对独居老人的转移支付,提升老人的消费倾向,彻底缓解农村老年贫困问题。

The Living Arrangement,Income Structure and Poverty Vulnerability of the Rural Elderly

Currently,the phenomenon of the elderly living alone is widespread in rural China,and the problem of poverty for the rural elderly is prominent.Based on the data of China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)and China Grassroots Governance Survey(CGGS)from 2013 to 2017,this article examines the problem of the rural elderly poverty caused by the change of the living arrangement of the rural elderly.The study chooses poverty vulnerability index to measure the probability of individuals falling into poverty in the future,which is conducive to a prospective analysis of the problem of poverty among the elderly.The empirical results show that the living arrangement significantly affects the poverty vulnerability of the elderly population,and the probability of the living-alone elderly falling into poverty is much higher than that of the living-with-children elderly.Further heterogeneity analysis finds that,firstly,compared with the elderly males,the fact of living alone has a more pronounced effect on poverty for the elderly females.Secondly,compared with sons,daughters play a greater role in relieving the poverty of their elderly parents.Thirdly,having the lineal relatives living in the same village can significantly alleviate poverty of the living-alone elderly.Finally,based on the theory of consumption behavior,the study discusses the impact mechanism of the living arrangement on the poverty vulnerability of the rural elderly.It finds that the transition of living arrangement has significantly changed the income structure of rural elderly families.The fact of living alone will significantly reduce the proportion of household non-agricultural income,thus leading to a decline in consumption propensity and in the end resulting in an increase in consumption-based poverty vulnerability indicators.Therefore,the study suggests that the government,society and families should increase the transfer payments to the living-alone elderly from different channels,enhance the consumption propensity of the elderly,and completely alleviate the problem of poverty of the rural elderly.