中国粮食供需的预测指标体系及模型设计

通过建立粮食需求预测指标体系,从口粮、饲料粮、种子粮、工业用粮及粮食损耗角度实现了粮食需求预测。并采用基于三次指数平滑模型、灰色预测模型、支持向量机预测模型的组合预测模型,成功实现了粮食供给预测。最后,在粮食供需综合分析中,确认了粮食供需缺口的存在性。

Index System and Model Design of Grain Supply and Demand Forecast in China

In the grain demand forecasting process,this paper establish grain demand forecasting index system;from the angles of grain ration,feed grain,seed grain,grain for industrial uses and grain loss realize the grain demand forecasting.In the grain supply forecasting process,use the combination forecast model based on the three exponential smoothing model,grey prediction model and the support vector machine forecasting model,implement the grain supply forecasts.Finally,in the comprehensive analysis of grain supply and demand,confirm the existence of the supply and demand of grain gap.