基于协整理论货币供应量与经济增长、物价水平关系研究

利用货币供应量与经济增长、物价水平之间关系的经典理论,从长期和短期两方面对我国的货币供应量与经济增长、物价水平关系进行实证研究,得到三者之间存在协整关系的结论。在此基础上检验了Granger因果关系,建立了误差修正模型,并从脉冲响应和方差分解的角度来分析货币供给对经济增长、物价水平的影响。验证结果表明,货币供给增长率与经济增长率存在双向因果关系,同时我国货币存在内生性,货币供应量的增长主要反映在物价水平上。

The Relationship Money Supply Inflation and Economic Growth based on the Cointegration

This paper mainly studies based on harmonious theory of money supply and economic growth relation of price level.Method the main use of the money supply and economic growth,price levels,the relationship between the classical theory,uses the econometrics method from long and short two aspects of China’s money supply,price level and economic growth empirical study of the relationship between the three,be there exists cointegration relationship.On the basis of examination of the Granger causality,and build an error to amend a model,and from the impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis of money supply on economic growth and price level influence.The results show that the growth rate of money supply and economic growth rate in the presence of two-way causal relationship,at the same time,China’s monetary exist inside natural disposition,the growth of the money supply is mainly reflected in the price level.