我国农产品价格波动对农村居民消费的动态影响

本文在构建VAR模型的基础上,运用脉冲响应函数及方差分解技术,刻画了农产品价格波动对农村居民消费的动态影响。实证结果表明,短期内农产品价格上涨对农村居民消费支出有较强的正效应,在长期内正效应较弱。因此,在扩大内需的战略背景下,依靠提高农产品价格以促进农村居民消费只是应时之需,从长期看,要充分发挥农村消费对经济的拉动作用,必须建立起促进农村居民消费能力提升的长效机制。

Dynamic Impact of Agricultural Products Price Fluctuations on the Consumption of Rural Residents in China

This article analyzes the impact of agricultural product price fluctuation on consumption of rural residents in the foundation of VAR model by the impulse response function and variance decomposition technique. The empirical result shows that agricultural products prices fluctuation has a positive effect on the consumption expenditure of rural residents in short term, but the positive effect is weak in the long term. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the consumption of rural residents by raising agricultural products prices in the background of expanding domestic demand. From a long-term perspective, a effective mechanism of promoting consumption of rural residents should be established so as to promote the economy growth.