供给侧改革背景下新兴经济体发展现实比较及延伸思考

经济全球化促进了经济要素全球范围的广泛流动,也催生出了一些发展速度快、对全球影响较大的新兴经济体。研究发现:中国、巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非这些新兴经济体的人均GDP在时间上发生了显著性变化,各个新兴经济体间的人均GDP也存在显著性差别。近十年间,中国经济增长基本保持了平稳状态,GDP的增长率波动不大,巴西、俄罗斯、印度以及南非经济增长波动均较大;中国与其他新兴经济体的货物与服务进出口、国外直接投资均没有显著的相关关系,彼此间影响也不明显。未来中国需要进一步优化产业结构,加强生态、制度环境建设,推动经济社会的全面进步;要加快新一轮高水平对外开放,拓展国际合作空间,建成开放型经济体;促进机会平等,走包容性经济增长之路,实现经济社会可持续发展。

Comparison of the Development Reality of Emerging Economies and the Extended Thinking

Economic globalization has promoted the wide flow of economic factors in the world,and has also spawned some emerging economies with rapid development and greater global impact.The research shows that the per capita GDP of China,Brazil,Russia,India and South Africa has changed significantly over time,and their per capita GDP varies greatly from each other.Over the past 10 years,China's economy has basically maintained stable growth,with little fluctuation in the GDP growth rate,while that of Brazil,Russia,India and South Africa fluctuates considerably.There is no significant correlation between China and the rest emerging economies in terms of the import and export of goods and services and foreign direct investment,and their impact on each other is not obvious.In the future,China needs to further optimize its industrial structure,strengthen the construction of ecological and institutional environment,and promote the overall progress of economy and society.It shall accelerate a new round of high-level opening to the outside world,expand the space for international cooperation,and build an open economy.It shall also promote equality of opportunity and take the road of inclusive economic growth,to achieve sustainable economic and social development.