| 基于谱分析的城市住宅价格周期关系研究——以武汉市为例 |
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| 引用本文： | 李进涛,郭志涛.基于谱分析的城市住宅价格周期关系研究——以武汉市为例[J].湖北经济学院学报,2011,9(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 李进涛 郭志涛 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 湖北工业大学土木工程与建筑学院,湖北武汉,430068
2. 河南工业大学土木建筑学院,河南郑州,650224 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖北省教育厅人文社科研究项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 以武汉市8个城区住宅增量与存量价格的季度数据,运用谱分析探索了增量与存量住宅价格的周期及其领先-滞后关系。研究结果显示,以增量交易为主导的住宅市场结构中,增量住宅价格周期普遍短于存量住宅价格周期,增量住宅价格波动比存量住宅频繁,增量住宅价格较存量住宅处于领先或同步的关系。因此,政府应在严控房地产投机行为的同时,通过调整结构、增加增量住宅供应、完善存量住宅市场等途径强化市场调控。
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| 关 键 词： | 住宅价格周期 增量 存量 谱分析 武汉 |
The Spectral Analysis of Housing Price Cycle——A Case of Wuhan |
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| LI Jin-tao,GUO Zhi-tao.The Spectral Analysis of Housing Price Cycle——A Case of Wuhan[J].Journal of Hubei University of Economics,2011,9(5). |
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| Authors: | LI Jin-tao GUO Zhi-tao |
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| Institution: | LI Jin-tao1,GUO Zhi-tao2(1.School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Hubei University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430068,China,2.School ofCivil Engineering and Architecture,Henan University of Technology,Zhengzhou Henan 650224,China) |
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| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship of housing price cycles between the new and existing housing market by using the housing price data of eight districts in Wuhan.The empirical study shows that the price cycles of new housing are shorter than that of existing housing,and the new housing prices fluctuate frequently in the context of new housing transaction-oriented market structure.The new housing prices are leading or synchronous with the existing mar-ket,not consistent with the foreign experiences.The government should control the real estate speculation strictly,adjust the housing structure,increase in new housing supply,and improve the stock house market and other ways to strengthen market regulation. |
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| Keywords: | housing price cycle new housing market existing housing market spectral analysis Wuhan |
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