中国劳务输出对进出口贸易影响的实证分析

本文采用修正的贸易引力模型,应用中国与175个国家(地区)1995~2004年的面板数据,就中国劳务输出对进出口贸易的影响进行实证分析。对样本总体的回归结果表明,我国对外劳务输出与出口之间存在互补关系,劳务输出能够带动出口增加;而劳务输出对进口没有明显影响,二者之间呈现不显著的替代关系。对样本国家(地区)按区域和收入分组的回归结果与对样本总体的回归结果基本一致:我国对大多数国家(地区)的劳务输出与出口之间存在正相关关系,特别是外派劳务最为集中的东亚和南亚,劳务输出对出口有着明显的拉动作用;在进口方面,除拉美和加勒比海国家外,对其余各组国家(地区)的劳务输出与进口之间均为负相关关系,而这种关系通常不显著。

The Effect of Labor Export on Foreign Trade: An Empirical Study of China

Based on a modified gravity model, this paper makes an empirical study of the effect of labor export on foreign trade using panel data of China with 175 partner countries (regions) from 1995 to 2004.The regression results from the whole sample show that labor export expands China's goods export, while its effect on import is insignificant.To test if the effects are different in different countries (regions),the whole sample is divided into 7 groups.The grouping regression results are similar with that of the whole sample.Labor export to most countries(regions)increases goods export,and this effect is most evident in East Asia and South Asia.Except Latin American and Caribbean countries,labor export has a negative effect on goods import,but this relationship is insignificant in most cases.