高速铁路兰州至张掖三四线运输需求分析

高速铁路兰州至张掖三四线运输需求是确定其建设方案、投融资模式、主要技术标准、运输组织和运营管理方案的决策依据,更是确定铁路经济效益和修建可行性的关键指标。通过对旅客运输径路比较分析,结合区域路网构成确定高速铁路兰州至张掖三四线可能的功能定位,包括"城际功能为主"、"城际、通道功能并重"和"通道功能为主"3种情景。再基于"情景分析"的基本原理,利用"四阶段法"预测高速铁路兰州至张掖三四线处于3种不同情景下的运输需求,即远期客流密度分别为805万人/a、1426万人/a和1852万人/a。

A Research on Transport Demand of Lanzhou-Zhangye High-Speed Railway

The traffic demand of Lanzhou-Zhangye High-Speed Railway is the foundation for the decision-making on the construction strategy, funding model, major technical standards, transport organization and operation management, as well as a key factor determining the economic benefit and feasibility of railway construction. Through comparative analysis of passenger transport routes, combined with the regional railway network, this paper analyzes three possible scenarios of the positioning of this line, which are "mainly for intercity train", "balance between intercity train and corridor train" and "mainly for corridor". Based on the basic principle of "scenario analysis", the traffic demand of the railway in 3 different scenarios is forecasted by using the four-stage predicted methods, namely, the long-term passenger flow densities are 8.05 million passengers/a, 14.26 million passengers/a and 18.52 passengers/a respectively.