中国渔业经济效率评价及发展趋势预测

目的]渔业是国民经济的重要基础产业。渔业经济效率评价有助于揭示区域渔业资源转换利用效率,服务于渔业经济可持续与高质量发展。方法]文章基于超效率SBM模型和2006—2018年我国30个省（市、自治区,不含港澳台和西藏地区）淡水养殖渔业经济投入产出数据,测算了区域渔业经济效率,以TOPSIS模型分析投入产出与经济效率的叠加特征,结合标准差椭圆、灰色动态模型GM (1, 1)对我国渔业经济效率空间格局进行分析与预测。结果]（1）渔业经济效率均达到效率前沿面的80%以上,且呈波动上升趋势。东部、中部、东北地区渔业经济效率远大于西部地区。（2）渔业经济效率与投入产出关系复杂,以“高—高—高—高”“中—中—中—高”“中—中—中—中”类型为主。渔业经济效率空间集聚性增强,空间上呈现4个核密度高值区,高值区范围趋于扩张。（3）渔业经济效率的重心前移路径表现为由东向西,且重心移动速率不断加快,空间分布格局相对稳定。未来渔业经济效率重心总体上向西南移动,保持东北—西南倾向。结论]研究有助于把握中国渔业养殖经济效率的时空变化特征及发展趋势,能够为各地渔业经济发展提供重要的决策支持。

EVALUATION OF FISHERY ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY AND DEVELOPMENT TREND FORECAST IN CHINA

Fishery is a significant basic industry of the national economy. The evaluation of fishery economic efficiency helps to reveal the efficiency of conversion and utilization of regional fishery resources, and serves the sustainable and high-quality development of fishery economy. Based on the super-efficiency SBM model and the economic input-output data of freshwater aquaculture fisheries in 30 provinces (municipalities, autonomous regions, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet region) of China from 2006 to 2018, the economic efficiency of regional fisheries was measured, and the TOPSIS model was used to analyze the superposition characteristics of input-output and economic efficiency. The difference ellipse and grey dynamic model GM (1, 1) were used to analyze and predict the spatial pattern of fishery economic efficiency. The results were showed as follows. (1) The economic efficiency of fishery all reached more than 80% of the efficiency frontier, and showed a fluctuating upward trend. The fishery economic efficiency in the eastern, central and northeastern regions was much greater than that in the western region. (2) The relationship between fishery economic efficiency and input-output was complex, and the main types were "high-high-high-high", "medium-medium-medium-high", and "medium-medium-medium-medium". The spatial agglomeration of fishery economic efficiency was enhanced, and there were four high-value areas of nuclear density in space, and the range of high-value areas tended to expand. (3) The forward movement path of the center of gravity of fishery economic efficiency was from east to west, and the moving speed of the center of gravity was accelerating, and the spatial distribution pattern was relatively stable. In the future, the center of gravity of fishery economic efficiency will generally move to the southwest, maintaining a northeast-southwest trend. In summary, the study is helpful to reveal the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and development trend of China''s fishery economic efficiency, and can provide important decision support for the development of fishery economy in various provinces.