我国制造业集聚经济动态性研究：基于产业生命周期的视角

本文使用我国制造业部门数据，检验了产业生命周期不同阶段中集聚对产业发展的不同影响，重点比较了该过程中地方化经济与城市化经济的作用变化。结果发现，地方化经济在成长阶段及衰退阶段对产业发展起负向作用，在产业的成熟阶段起正向作用；城市化经济在产业的成长及衰退阶段均产生正效应，在成熟阶段对产业发展无显著作用。本文的研究表明，产业空间布局策略必须结合产业发展的不同阶段来制定，一味地鼓励集聚并不总能获得好的政策效果。

Dynamics of Agglomeration Economies along Industry Life Cycle

This paper tests different role agglomeration economies play in different stages of industry life cycle by utilizing Chinese data,with an emphasis on the comparison between localization and urbanization economies.Results show that localization economies have negative effect on industries during their growing and declining stages while having positive effect during their mature stage.Urbanization economies have positive effect on industries in their growing and declining stages,but have no significant effect in their mature stage.The study shows that industrial spatial allocation strategy should be developed according to industries’ life stage.The encouragement of agglomeration won’t always get good policy effect.