金融危机下国际生产体系对全球贸易的冲击及福利影响

从国际生产和世界贸易两个层面分析并测算了当今世界生产和贸易的最新特点和进展,揭示了两大体系的紧密联系.在外部需求下降的情况下,垂直专业化生产对国际贸易尤其是中间产品贸易造成了负面影响,金融危机通过垂直的国际生产格局对国际贸易的破坏作用放大了.由于供应链的断裂会造成价值链上多个国家进出口贸易的下降,并对深层次参与垂直专业...

Impact of International Production System on Global Trade and Welfare in Financial Crisis

With the deepening of economic globalization, the international production system and the world trading system develop along vertical direction, and form the prevailing vertical specialization pattern and intra-firm trade. This paper analyzes and measures the latest features and developments of the interna- tional production and world trade, reveals the close ties of the two systems. In the case of declining of external demand, vertical specialization production had a negative impact on international trade, especially on the intermediate goods trade, the financial crisis enlarged the destructive effect on international trade through the vertical pattern of international production. The fracture of supply chain will decrease the import and export of value chain countries, and cause welfare loss for the developing and developed countries deeply in the vertical specialization.