外部供需冲击视角下的东亚货币合作可行性研究

区域货币合作在维护区域金融稳定、促进区域经济发展方面具有不可替代的作用。欧洲主权债务危机爆发后,人们对东亚能否继续进行货币合作产生了疑问,有必要结合欧债危机产生的新情况、新问题,从新的视角探讨东亚货币合作的可行性。文章从供给与需求两方面的经济结构冲击对称性视角,对东亚10个经济体之间的冲击相关系数、冲击规模与调整速度进行了实证分析,证实了东亚区域不同经济体之间存在着不同的对称性,具有双边和次区域货币合作的经济基础。同时文章提出东亚区域未来货币合作的形式、实现路径和风险防范措施。

Study on the Feasibility of Monetary Cooperation in East Asia from the Angle of Supply and Demand Shocks

Regional monetary cooperation plays an irreplaceable role in maintaining regional financial stability and promoting regional economic development.But after the European sovereign debt crisis,people doubt the feasibility of monetary cooperation in East Asia.It is necessary to study the feasibility from a new perspective based on the new situation and problems caused by the European sovereign debt crisis.This paper makes an empirical study of shock correlation coefficient between 10 East Asia economies,shock size and adjustment speed based on the symmetry of economic structural shocks from the angle of supply and demand,and confirms that the symmetry differs with the economies and there are economic bases of bilateral and sub-regional monetary cooperation in East Asia.Finally,it makes some suggestions about the cooperation form,realization path and risk prevention in East Asia.