基于制造业技术创新的战略性贸易政策与我国产业结构优化研究

文章采用理论分析、数理建模、实证分析等方法，对战略性贸易政策在制造业技术创新、产业结构升级与优化中的重要作用进行了研究。研究结果表明：（1）LZFTR（政府资金投入）与CJP（初级品）的相关系数r＝-0.964，LZFTR与ZCP（工业制成品）的相关系数r＝0.982（P＜0.01）。表明战略性贸易政策能够有效降低初级品出口比重，增加工业制品的出口比重，从而促进出口贸易结构不断升级与优化；（2） 战略性贸易政策对高技术制造业产品出口贸易固定效应、随机效应模型系数值均为正，战略性贸易政策政府研究发展补贴每增加100%，高技术产业对外贸易结构就会优化0.0042，说明战略性贸易政策对高技术制造业产品的外贸易结构变化有正向促进作用；（3）战略性贸易政策对各高技术制造行业贸易结构的影响不尽相同，其对医药制造业及各小类行业对外贸易出口产业结构优化均有明显的促进作用，其对仪器仪表出口贸易结构优化有着明显的促进作用，但是对医疗设备与器械制造出口贸易结构优化的促进作用并不显著。在此基础上作者提出了推动我国实现产业结构优化的相关战略性贸易政策建议，以期为提高我国制造业的自主创新能力，优化产业结构提供一定的理论参考。

Research on Strategic Trade Policy Based on Manufacturing Technology Innovation and Industrial Structure Optimization in China

In this paper,the theoretical analysis,mathematical modeling,empirical analysis and other methods are used to study the important role of strategic trade policy in manufacturing technology innovation,industrial structure upgrading and optimizat ion.The results show that:(1)the correlation coefficient between LZFTR(govern ment funds input)and CJP(primary product)r=-0.964,LZFTR and ZCP(manufa ctured goods)r=0.982(P<0.01).That strategic trade policy can effectively reduce the proportion of exports of primary products,increase the proportion of exports of industrial products,so as to promote the import and export trade stru cture upgrading and optimization;(2)the strategic trade policy of high-tech ma nufacturing products export trade of fixed effects and random effect model coeff icients are positive,each increase of the strategic trade policy of government r esearch and development 100％ subsidies,high technology industry will optimize th e structure of foreign trade 0.0042,that strategic trade policy has positive ef fect on foreign trade structure change of high-tech manufacturing products;(3)effects of strategic trade policy on the high technology manufacturing industry trade structure is not the same,the obvious promotion of pharmaceutical manufact uring and the industry of foreign trade export industry structure optimization h as the function,the instrument of the export trade structure optimization has ob vious.But it has no significant effect on the optimization of export structure o f medical equipment and equipment manufacturing.On this basis,the author puts fo rward some suggestions to promote China's strategic trade policy to optimize th e industrial structure,in order to improve the capability of independent innovat ion of China's manufacturing industry,provide a theoretical reference for the o ptimization of the industrial structure.