企业债务期限结构与自由现金流的门限关系研究

文章创新性地运用了微观企业数据，通过构建面板门限模型考察了企业债务期限结构与企业自由现金流的非线性关系，并进一步揭示了宏观经济波动对企业债务期限结构与自由现金流关系的影响。研究发现：第一，企业债务期限结构与企业现金流的关系因为债务利息的不同呈现出双重门限效应。主要表现为当企业债务利息处于较低水平时，企业自由现金流与债务期限结构呈反向相关关系；当企业债务利息处于较高水平时，企业债务期限结构与债务期限结构呈正向相关关系；第二，宏观经济波动影响企业债务期限结构与自由现金流关系的敏感性。最后，从提高自由现金流的利用率、完善多层次资本市场建设以及降低融资杠杆等方面提出对策建议。

The Threshold Effect between Corporate Debt Maturity Structure and the Cash Flows

Based on the micro-enterprise data，the paper investigates the influence of macroeconomic fluctuations to the relation between corporate debt maturity structure and the cash flows by building the panel threshold regression model. Furthermore，the paper reveals the nonlinear relations between corporate debt maturity structure and the cash flows. There are two keys of the finding. Firstly，the relation between enterprise debt maturity structure and the cash fl ows presents a nonlinear relationship on account of the debt interest. The main characteristic of the nonlinear relations is the double threshold effect of the cash flows on corporate debt maturity structure. When the debt interest is at a lower level，enterprises tend to choose the short-term debt;otherwise，enterprises tend to choose the long-term debt. Secondly，macroeconomic fluctuations influence the sensitivity between corporate debt maturity structure and the cash fl ows. The enterprise is not willing to make debt financing because of the economic depression，so the sensitivity of the free cash flows and debt maturity structure presents a certain degree of declining. Finally the paper puts forward the corresponding countermeasure suggestions，for example，increasing the utilization rate of the free cash flows，improving the multi-level capital market construction and reducing the leverage financing.