经济增长与城市化速度和投资驱动

本文利用投资、城市化速度和经济增长构成PSVAR系统，分析了三者之间复杂的相互关系。得到结论：（1）结果支持既有文献关于投资促进城市化、城市化促进经济增长的判断；（2）经济增长对投资的长期弹性为0.490387311，表明投资仍然是我国经济增长的重要驱动力；（3）城市化速度对经济增长的累积响应为 -0.002826893，表明从长期看经济增长会抑制城市化速度，使得城市化进程速度趋缓。根据上述实证结果，我们提出以下建议：投资是我国经济增长的重要驱动力，在鼓励消费和扩大外需的情况下投资也不能忽视，但在我国经济增长方式转型的背景下，我们要依靠有效的投资而不是落后产能和重复投资；经济增长从长期看抑制城市化进程，我国少数大城市集中大量资源，吸引大量人口，但伴随这些高收入，大城市的高生活成本并不利于我国城市化进程的进一步推进，因而我国采取新型城镇化规划，启动国家中心城市布局建设，实现经济空间的优化乃是必要的。

Economic Growth Urbanization Speed and Investment

In this paper，we have analyzed the complicated relationships among investment，urbanization speed and economic growth using PSVAR model. First of all，the judgement of the investment accelarates urbanization and urbanization stimulateseconomic growth is supported by results from this paper. Secondly，investment is still the important facor stimulating economy，which is suggested by the long-run elasticity of economic growth to investment which is equal to 0.490387311. Lastly，in the long run urbanization speed is suppressed by economic growth，which is indicated by the cumulative impulse response of urbanization speed to economic growth which is equal to -0.002826893. According to the above results，we have some suggestions as follows. First，while encouraging consumption and export，we can’t neglect that the investment is important to economic growth. With the transition of China's economic growth pattern，we must rely on efficient investment other than backward production capacity or overlapping investments. Second，the development of a few big cities equipped with so much resource which have high average income and life cost suppresses the urbanization speed. So it’s necessary for the government to carry out the new urbaniztion scheme which supports the construction of new national central cities that will improve the economic efficicy in space.