中小板上市公司管理层盈余预测质量的影响因素研究

管理层盈余预测是中小板上市公司对未来展望的信息，在信息披露中占据着越来越重要的地位。本文选取2013-2015 年中小板上市公司相关数据，运用广义多分类无序logit 模型对影响中小板上市公司管理层盈余预测质量的因素进行探究，以期提高管理层盈余预测的质量。经研究结果表明，公司的独立董事占比、年度召开董事会次数、股权集中度、净资产收益率、管理层持股比例等因素越高，对提高中小板上市公司管理层盈余预测质量越有益，除此之外，中小板上市公司董事长和总经理兼任情况，与公司合作的审计机构专业程度均对管理层盈余预测的质量有一定影响。

Research on the Influence Factors of Management Earnings Forecast Quality of Small and Medium Sized Listed Companies

The earnings forecast information of the SME board listed companies future information plays a more and more important role in information disclosure. This paper selects 2013-2015 small board listed companies related data，using the generalized multi classification logit model to explore the factors of the disordered quality of earnings forecast of listed companies management of small plates，in order to improve the quality of management earnings forecast. The results show that the proportion of independent directors of the company，the number of annual meeting of the board of directors，ownership concentration，rate of return on net assets，the proportion of managerial ownership and other factors is higher，to improve the management of listed companies earnings forecast quality and more beneficial to small and medium-sized board. Chairman and general manager of the company by one people，audit institutions as the “big four” accounting firms，to improve the management of listed companies earnings forecast quality，also plays a positive role in the small board.