中国—欧盟贸易差额现状及其原因的实证分析

在分析中国与欧盟双边贸易差额数据差异的基础上,利用主成分分析方法,将影响中欧贸易差额的原因归为供给变量、需求变量和贸易政策环境三大因素。再利用多变量回归分析方法,研究其影响。结论为供给因素是影响中欧贸易差额扩大的根本原因,近期的贸易政策环境的变化是导致中欧贸易顺差扩大的短期因素,而需求因素的变化有减少中欧贸易差额的作用。

The Causes of Trade Surplus between China and EU

Based on analyzing the statistical difference of trade between China and EU, this paper uses the method of main component analysis and concludes that there are three factors affecting trade surplus between China and EU, which respectively are supply, demand and trade environment. Then the paper uses multi-variable regression to analyze the effect of the three factors on the trade surplus between China and EU. Ultimately, the paper concludes that supply factors are the essential causes; trade environment changes have short effects and demand factors has negative effects on the trade surplus between China and EU.