人民币实际汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的弹性影响——基于可变参数模型的实证研究

基于可变参数模型和脉冲响应函数分析法对汇率变化与我国进出口贸易的弹性影响进行分析，结果发现：在所选样本期内我国进出口贸易值同向变动，出口对汇率变化反应的滞后期要短于进口的滞后期。这说明在我国目前经济增长模式不变的情况下，汇率持续升值更多地会导致进出口减少进而损害整体经济，且对改善贸易收支不平衡的影响十分有限。其解决途径是改变我国经济增长方式，即拉动经济增长的动力由投资和出口为主转变为由投资和国内消费为主。

The Elastic Influence of the Changes of RMB Real Exchange Rate on the Import and Export Trade in Our Country: A Substantial Evidence Study Based on the Variable Parameter Model

This paper analyzes the elastic influence of the changes of exchange rate on the import and export trade in our country based on the variable parameter model and the pulse response to function.And it finds that during the elected sample period,the lag time of export reacting to the exchange rate is shorter than the one of import.This shows that if the mode of economic growth in our country remains fixed,exchange rate's continuous revaluation will cause the import and export reduction at the same time and then destroy the whole economy,and its influence on improving the unbalance of revenue and expenditure is very limited.To solve this problem,we should change the model of our country's current economic growth,that's to say,the motive of promoting the economic growth is mainly from the investment and the domestic consumption instead of the export.