Forecasting the impact of office automation on clerical employment, 1985–2000

This article offers a forecast of the effects that advances in office automation technology will have on clerical employment in the banking and insurance industries for the period 1985–2000. A new forecasting approach, intended to account more directly for technological change, was developed for the study and is described. Clerical employment in both industries is estimated to peak about 1990 and decline rapidly during the following decade. Under the most conservative assumptions, absolute reductions in clerical employment of 22% in insurance and 10% in banking are expected by 2000. As a preliminary validation of the method, these results are compared to employment forecasts generated independently by executives in the two industries and to the results of other recent employment forecasts.