The future of the uplands |
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| Authors: | M.S. Reed A. Bonn W. Slee N. Beharry-Borg J. Birch I. Brown T.P. Burt D. Chapman P.J. Chapman G.D. Clay S.J. Cornell E.D.G. Fraser J.H. Glass J. Holden J.A. Hodgson K. Hubacek B. Irvine N. Jin M.J. Kirkby W.E. Kunin F. Worrall |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Aberdeen Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Centre for Planning and Environmental Management, School of Geosciences, University of Aberdeen, St Mary''s, Aberdeen AB24 3UF, UK;2. Department of Animal & Plant Science, University of Sheffield, Weston Bank, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK;3. Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, UK;4. Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth & Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, West Yorkshire LS2 9JT, UK;5. Department of Geography, University of Durham, Science Laboratories, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK;6. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Edinburgh EH26 0QB, UK;7. School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK;8. Department of Earth Sciences, Durham University, Science Laboratories, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK;9. Institute of Integrative & Comparative Biology, Faculty of Biological Sciences, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK;10. Centre for Mountain Studies, Perth College UHI, Crieff Road, Perth PH1 2NX, UK;11. Department of Sociological Studies, University of Sheffield, Northumberland Road, Sheffield S10 2TU, UK;12. Aberdeen Centre for Environmental Sustainability, University of Aberdeen and Macaulay Institute, School of Biological Sciences, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen AB24 2TZ, UK;13. Forest Research, Northern Research Station, Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9SY, UK;14. Upland Futures Project, Policy Team, Natural England, Northminster House, Peterborough PE1 1UA, UK;15. Science and Technology Policy Research, Freeman Centre, University of Sussex, UK;p. The Heather Trust, Newtonrigg, Holywood, Dumfries DG2 0RA, UK;1. Birmingham City University, UK;2. Pareto Consulting, Edinburgh, UK;3. James Hutton Institute, Aberdeen, UK;4. University of Stirling, UK;5. Welsh Government, UK;6. Freie Universität Berlin, Institut für Biologie, Plant Ecology, Altensteinstr. 6, D-14195 Berlin, Germany;7. Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), D-14195 Berlin, Germany;8. IUCN UK National Committee Peatland Programme, UK;9. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bangor, UK;10. SRUC, Edinburgh, UK;1. Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Gogerddan, Aberystwyth, SY23 3EE, UK;2. Rothamsted Research North Wyke, North Wyke, Okehampton, Devon, EX20 2SB, UK;1. Department of Earth Sciences, Science Laboratories, South Road, Durham DH1 3LE, UK;2. Moorland Association and the Heather Trust, Sunrise House, Hulley Road, Macclesfield, Cheshire SK10 2LP, UK |
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| Abstract: | Upland areas provide UK society with many important functions, goods and services, but have experienced a number of disturbing trends and face an uncertain future. This paper outlines historic, current and future drivers of environmental, economic, socio-cultural and policy change in UK uplands, and assesses how these have affected or are likely to affect ways in which land is used and the provision of ecosystem services. Information is synthesised into scenarios summarising a range of possible futures anticipated for UK uplands to 2060 and beyond. Finally, innovations in science, technology, governance and policy are evaluated that could enable uplands to continue providing key ecosystem services under a range of scenarios. The paper concludes that many upland areas will need to be prepared for significant reductions in grazing and prescribed burning. Conversely, other areas could experience agricultural intensification, for example significant increases in grazing or an expansion of arable or bioenergy crops into upland valleys, due to anticipated increases in global demand for food and energy. These scenarios will take place in the context of climate change. Many may take place together and may interact with each other, with complex and unpredictable implications for the upland environment, economy and society. In this context, a number of advances are needed in science, technology and policy to maintain viable upland communities and the future provision of ecosystem services. These may include funding for ecological and hydrological restoration via carbon offsetting or other means. It may also involve advances in ecosystem service modelling, mapping and valuation, which through stakeholder participation could facilitate more integrated rural planning. New forms of environmental governance need to be explored that can empower those interested in developing upland economies to maintain thriving upland communities, while managing the ecosystem services they provide as efficiently as possible. |
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