基于LMDI模型的工业碳排放影响因素研究——以无锡市为例

在估算2001～2010年无锡市工业分行业碳排放的基础上,基于改进的迪氏对数平均权重分解法,建立工业部门碳排放影响因素的分解模型。研究发现:工业经济规模效应和工业部门内部结构效应分别对工业碳排放起到显著的促进和抑制作用;工业能源结构变化对工业碳排放影响较小;代表节能环保技术水平的能源强度效应减缓了工业碳排放,但其抑制作用不稳定,能源利用效率仍有较大的提升空间。最后提出了相应的减排政策建议。

Influencing Factors of Industrial Carbon Emissions Based on LMDI Decomposition Method:A Case Study on Wuxi City

The paper calculates carbon emissions of Wuxi’s industrial sector for the period 2001 to 2010.Based on the refined logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method,a decomposition model of industrial carbon emissions is set up.This study indicates both of the inner-industry structure and energy intensity effect decelerate the growth of carbon emissions,and the former one plays the most part.In addition,energy structure effect has little impact on the reduction of industrial carbon emissions.And economic scale effect exhibits the most negative effect on carbon decrease.The results reveal that to slow down economic growth rate of those key energy-intensive subsectors and improve their energy efficiency will be of great significance in the short term,but in the long run energy structure must be readjusted.