资本管制决定因素的一般理论与实证分析

全球金融经济危机以来，资本管制和资本项目自由化问题引起了各国政府和经济学界的高度关注。本文对资本管制进行了基础性理论研究，研究表明：（1）一国放开资本管制实现资本项目自由化必须满足其前提条件，即总财富大于总支出，当该条件不满足时则应实施资本管制，而一些重要因素决定总财富与总支出的关系。（2）当一国公共支出的目标是社会福利最大化时，中等财富水平的国家更易实现资本项目自由化。（3）资本管制的实施应是逆周期的：经济越繁荣时资本项目有自由化倾向，此时应加强资本管制，抑制热钱流入，控制经济过热；相反，当经济进入衰退时有抑制资本项目自由化的倾向，此时在防止资本外逃的基础上，应适当放松资本管制，鼓励资本流入。本文采用61个发展中国家1980-2011年的数据对上述结论进行了实证检验。

THE DETERMINANTS OF CAPITAL CONTROLS： A THEORETICAL AND EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Capital controls and capital account liberalization had generated great concern of governments and the economics since the global financial and economic crisis This paper had developed a theoretical analysis of capital controls and capital account liberalization from the perspective of welfare by adopting optimal control technique It found that: (1) it was optimal to carry out capital account liberalization whenever the total wealth was above the total expenditure in finite time, and to carry out capital control forever when it is not meet (2) If the public expenditure was aimed to maximize social welfare, it was easier for moderately rich country to achieve the capital account liberalization (3) Capital controls should be applied in a counter cyclical way to smooth booms and busts Finally, this paper made an empirical analysis of the determinants of capital controls by using data from 66 developing countries during 1980-2011 to verify the conclusion above