当前宏观经济形势及政策取向分析

本文以总供给和总需求关系为理论框架 ,分析了 2 0 0 3年以来我国经济运行的趋势与特点 ,认为投资过度扩张和工业增长过快导致GDP增长速度偏高 ,消费价格涨势逐渐明显 ,经济增长质量出现下降。因此 ,2 0 0 4年的宏观经济政策 ,应当由对付通货紧缩转向防止通货膨胀 ,通过控制投资和工业过度扩张 ,适度调控经济增长速度 ,促进经济结构的协调 ,并加快经济增长方式的转变。

An Analysis of the Current Macroeconomic Situation and Policy

This paper analyses the tendency and characteristics of China's economic moving since 2003 on the basis of the theory for relationship of aggregate supply and aggregate demand. The excessive expanding of the investment and industry have brought about economic growth so fast that the CPI is going up and growth quality is coming down. Therefore, the macroeconomic policy for 2004 should change from dealing with deflation to guarding against inflation, and readjust the speed of economic growth and promote the coordination of economic structure by controlling expansion of investment and industry, and meanwhile speed up the transformation of economic growth pattern.