论货币与通胀关系的背离

长期以来,中国的货币增长和通货膨胀之间保持着良好的同步关系。但2010年下半年以来,这种稳定的关系似乎被打破,货币与通胀的同步关系出现趋势性背离。这无疑给经济预测以及宏观调控带来了极大的挑战。这种趋势性背离的根本原因是什么,未来这种背离是否仍将继续以及货币政策将如何应对,这些都是摆在我们面前的重要课题。本文将尝试从多个角度对这些问题进行剖析,以期得到若干基本结论和政策建议。

An Analysis On the Divergence of Money Supply and Inflation

The money growth and inflation have a very good synchronizing trend in the past few years.But since the second half of 2010,this stable relationship disappeared.This paper discuss the causes behind the deviation between the money growth and inflation,and if the trend will continue and how to deal with these challenges using monetary policy.Finally we reach some conclusions and provide some policy recommendation.