Loyalty programs and their impact on repeat-purchase loyalty patterns

Loyalty programs are currently increasing in popularity around the world. This paper discusses the potential of loyalty programs to alter the normal market patterns of repeat-purchase behaviour which characterise competitive repeat-purchase markets. In line with this thinking, a large scale loyalty program is evaluated in terms of its ability to change normal repeat-purchase patterns by generating ‘excess loyalty’ for brands in the program. Panel data were used to develop Dirichlet estimates of expected repeat-purchase loyalty statistics by brand. These estimates were compared with the observed market repeat-purchase behaviour. Overall a trend towards a weak level of excess loyalty was observed, although the expected deviation was not consistently observed for all the loyalty program brands. Only two of the six loyalty program participant brands showed substantial excess loyalty deviations. However, these deviations in repeat-purchase loyalty were observed for non-members of the loyalty program as well as members and appear likely to be at least partially the result of other loyalty efforts particular to these brands.